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Moore, C. T., and M. J. Conroy. 2006. Optimal regeneration planning for old-growth forest: addressing scientific uncertainty in endangered species recovery through adaptive management. Forest Science 52:155-172.

Abstract

Stochastic and structural uncertainties about forest dynamics present challenges in the management of ephemeral habitat conditions for endangered forest species. Maintaining critical foraging and breeding habitat for the endangered red-cockaded woodpecker (Picoides borealis) requires an uninterrupted supply of old-growth forest. We constructed and optimized a dynamic forest growth model for the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge (Georgia, USA) with the objective of perpetuating a maximum stream of old-growth forest habitat. Our model accommodates stochastic disturbances and hardwood succession rates, and uncertainty about model structure. We produced a regeneration policy that was indexed by current forest state and by current weight of evidence among alternative model forms. We used adaptive stochastic dynamic programming, which anticipates that model probabilities, as well as forest states, may change through time, with consequent evolution of the optimal decision for any given forest state. In light of considerable uncertainty about forest dynamics, we analyzed a set of competing models incorporating extreme, but plausible, parameter values. Under any of these models, forest silviculture practices currently recommended for the creation of woodpecker habitat are suboptimal. We endorse fully adaptive approaches to the management of endangered species habitats in which predictive modeling, monitoring, and assessment are tightly linked.

 

Current Staff

Federal Staff: 2

Masters Students: 3

Phd Students: 2

Post Docs: 1

University Staff: 2

5 Year Summary

Students graduated: 12

Scientific Publications: 39

Presentations: 171

 

Status

Published
April (2nd Quarter/Spring) 2006

Access

Download File Publisher Website

Unit Authors

South Carolina Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit Cooperators

  1. Clemson University
  2. South Carolina Department of Natural Resources
  3. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
  4. U.S. Geological Survey
  5. Wildlife Management Institute